Saudi Arabia’s economy shrank by 0.3% in 2023 compared to the previous year, primarily due to an 8.9% year-on-year decline in oil activities.
According to the General Authority for Statistics, the kingdom’s seasonally adjusted real GDP grew by 1.4% from Q1 2024, driven by a 4.9% increase in non-oil activities year-on-year and a 2.1% rise quarter-on-quarter.
In Q2 2024, Saudi Arabia’s GDP at current prices reached SAR1.02 trillion. Crude oil and natural gas activities contributed the most at 23.2%, followed by the government sector at 16.0%.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that Saudi oil revenues will rise until 2026 before declining more rapidly than previously expected. The IMF projects oil revenue to reach SAR783 billion, making up about 26% of GDP in 2026, but it will dip to SAR778 billion by 2029, 4.1% less than earlier estimates.
The IMF also predicts Saudi oil production to be 9 million barrels per day this year, increasing to 10.2 million in 2026 and 11 million in 2029. To balance its budget, Saudi Arabia needs oil prices at $96 per barrel, significantly higher than the current global benchmark Brent price.