Recent research conducted within Saudi Arabia projects a surge in precipitation throughout the coming years. Findings from a comprehensive climate study carried out by the National Centre for Meteorology (NCM) suggest a widespread increase in total rainfall across the nation.
Particularly, the study forecasts a notable escalation in the frequency of heavy rainfall occurrences in several regions, including Madinah, Al-Qassim, Riyadh, the Eastern Region, Makkah, Asir, Jazan, and the western parts of Najran. This pattern is expected to persist and intensify during the mid to late 21st century, especially under medium to high climate impact scenarios.
Regions in the southwestern part of the Kingdom are predicted to witness a significant rise in heavy rainfall events, with the potential of 25 to 30 such events occurring during the last two decades of the century under severe climate conditions.
While some areas of Saudi Arabia are set to experience increased rainfall, others might see a decrease, indicating a shift in regional climate patterns. The western coastline along the Red Sea, the eastern territories adjacent to the Arabian Gulf, and the southwestern regions are highlighted for their increased precipitation rates.
NCM’s study has also identified extreme rainfall intensities occurring historically at a decadal frequency, with cities such as Abha, Jeddah, and Riyadh recording maximum daily rainfall intensities of 113, 56, and 33 mm, respectively. These intensities amplify over longer periods, potentially reaching 192, 99, and 50 mm per day during a centennial recurrence.
The implications of this study are extensive, providing critical data for impact assessments, adaptation initiatives, and resilience planning across various sectors. Such information is invaluable for disaster management and supports strategic national planning by policymakers and stakeholders to foster sustainable development within Saudi Arabia.